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Streaming Defenses - Week 16

Wednesday December 21st, 2016 03:21:10 AM
Don't know about you all, but in our house this week is just chock full of events, visiting with family, and getting organized for our upcoming time off over the holidays. Lots of scrambling going on around here and attempts to install some sense of gratitude in my boys. What am I grateful for this season? Many things but let's start with Bob. Bob has been my fantasy football rock, coming back week after week to post. Hats off to you, Bob, and thank you for your diligent work and research. So here he is with this year's final streaming defense post. 

Well it’s the last week of the Fantasy Football Playoffs in most leagues, and my last post of the season. I hope you all found these posts useful. And if I failed you, you have to murder a lot more experts before you get to me. I myself have had a terrible playoff season. I’m out of all but one of my leagues due to the weird games the last two weeks. Between weather that didn’t materialize to normally consistent players coming up bust (yeah, I’m looking at you Brady and Bell), I’ve had the worst year in years. But at least it wasn’t because of my defenses. The big trend that came out of this season is the increase in streaming QBs. We may have to take a look at that next season.

Week 15 was weird for a lot of skill positions and the Defs had some surprises as well. The highly owned only averaged 8.7 points due in large part to busts by MIN and PHI, who should be dropped at this point. The streamers were hit and miss. Big hit for MIA, ATL and OAK, but misses on BAL, NO, and NYJ. At least CLE didn’t let us down. In fact, the only target for the streamers that didn’t produce was ARI.

Week 15 Highly Owned
Team
Opp
% Owned
Proj Pts
Actual
MIN
IND
98%
14
0
DEN
NE
98%
4
6
SEA
LAR
98%
12
14
NEP
@DEN
97%
13
17
KCC
TEN
94%
11
10
ARI
NO
93%
10
11
PHI
@BAL
72%
2
3
  Avg



8.71
Streams for Week 15
BAL
PHI
62%
12
5
MIA
@NYJ
55%
10
21
ATL
SF
43%
9
10
OAK
@SD
45%
9
12
NO
@ARI
14%
8
5
NYJ
MIA
25%
8
5
BUF
CLE
62%
8
11
NYG
DET
29%
8
11
  Avg



10.00

This week we see a diversification in highly owned teams, or should I say a more even distribution of ownership. This shows me that more and more people are streaming, as ownership changes quite a bit week to week. This week we have only six teams owned in more than 80% leagues. And I don’t like two of them to start. So we have a vast collection of 7 great streams this week, with one warning.

Week 16 Highly Owned
Team
Opp
% Owned
Proj Pts
Comment
SEA
ARI
98%
12
Another top target in ARI with SEA surging to the playoffs. Another big day for SEA who has been your lucky charm through the playoffs.
MIN
@GB
96%
4
It's sad how many people have hung on to the Vikes hoping to return to glory days. Zero points last week folks against the Colts!!! I've bailed on the Vikes and you should too…
NEP
NYJ
96%
14
This one shouldn't even be fair. Top DEF against the Top Givers. Best matchup this week. Win your league with the Patriots.
KCC
DEN
94%
12
DEN has averaged giving up 12 pts/game to top 10 DEFs. KC is 2nd best DEF. I'll take those 12 points please.
DEN
@KC
94%
6
Except for the Jags in week 13, the Broncos' Def have been pedestrian lately. Chiefs are 7th stingiest. Not a good matchup. If you start, temper expectations.
ARI
@SEA
88%
8
Talk about a defensive matchup. ARI won't score as many as SEA, but still worth a start.
Streams for Week 16
SDC
@CLE
32%
14
This is the matchup you waivered SD for in week 14, remember? Best stream of the week.
NYG
@PHI
34%
12
Another surging DEF you have to start against an offense that isn't sure of itself. 2nd best stream
DAL
DET
48%
11
DAL has also found its DEF lately avging over 13 pts/game over last 3 games. Lions have been more generous lately. DAL at home will post a great game. 3rd best stream.
GB
MIN
37%
8/12
This is my sneaky stream of the week. I don't know where to rank them though. Vikings are imploding, and GB is surging. Somewhere between 2nd and 4th best stream.
MIA
@BUF
57%
10/15
MIA is on a roll defensively, but BUF is a tough target. I still like this one, especially if there's weather involved. 4th best stream. Good upside with weather.
TBB
@NOS
12%
9
Only 12% owned??? The Bucs' Def is also surging eyeing the playoffs. NOS will score but will give up points too. 5th best stream.
LAR
SF
54%
8/12
This is a tough one for me to recommend, but it's the Niners, so you have to expect some giving. There could also be a post-Fischer resurgence, so I say start 'em. 6th best stream with upside.
PHI
NYG
69%
4
Another DEF you have to let go, if you haven't already.

Good luck and don’t forget to tell me next week that my streamers you started, single-handedly won your league for you. 

Happy Holidays!
Bob Tierney
 

Streaming Defenses - Week 15

Wednesday December 14th, 2016 01:29:21 AM


Well, my season is over, friends. I can't say I'm all that surprised as my fantasy football efforts weren't terribly high this year, but it's always a bit alarming to be done this early. Here's hoping many of you are still in and fighting your way to a championship. Bob is here to keep things rolling for the DST streamers. Best of luck!
Wow, what a difference a week can make. Last week the streamers were terrible due to no good matchups. This week the streamers had the matchups and it showed. Aside from SEA, the highly did as expected. Even PHI showed up to make some points, but don’t chase the points there, PHI is still terrible. The streamers did great with only DET disappointing. And CAR and ATL probably won some playoff games for you. Even without ATL and CAR, the streamers averaged 11 points, not too shabby.

Week 14 Highly Owned
Team
Opp
% Owned
Proj Pts
Actual
DEN
@TEN
99%
8
8
SEA
@GB
98%
12/6
3
NEP
BAL
97%
13
10
MIN
@JAC
95%
14
8
KCC
OAK
93%
12/6
14
ARI
@MIA
91%
8
9
PHI
WAS
82%
4
12
  Avg



9.14
Streams for Week 14
CIN
@CLE
33%
12
11
DET
CHI
9%
9
6
WAS
@PHI
12%
8
11
CAR
SDC
70%
8
22
MIA
ARI
63%
8
16
TEN
DEN
11%
10/6
12
ATL
@LAR
16%
6
30
  Avg



15.43

This week we continue our match through the playoffs. I only like 5 of the 7 highly owned this week. Beware of starting DEN. And why do people still own the Eagles? Since week 9, here are the DEF pts for PHI: 7, 8, 1, 1, 4, 12.

Lots of targets for the streamers this week. And watch for teams with games that they need for the playoff run. The top 4 streamers this week have a path to the playoffs, and will play like it. With only 5 highly owned recommended, this week I give you 7 great streamers.
Week 15 Highly Owned
Team
Opp
% Owned
Proj Pts
Comment
MIN
IND
98%
14
MIN at home and IND without an off line, I like this as the 1st best highly owned.
DEN
NE
98%
4
This is a nightmare matchup for the Broncos, I would look elsewhere.
SEA
LAR
98%
12
SEA didn't look good against GB, but LAR is not GB. Expect a good return as the 3rd best start.
NEP
@DEN
97%
13
DEN Off is bad right now without a ground game, and NE will key in on those pesky receivers. 2nd best start this week.
KCC
TEN
94%
11
Don't know why this one isn't rated higher, but I like the Chiefs this week. 4th best start.
ARI
NO
93%
10
ARI will score some points this week against a weak offensive line, start with confidence.
PHI
@BAL
72%
2
A lot of experts like this matchup. I don't, the Eagles' Def is terrible now, look elsewhere.
Streams for Week 15
BAL
PHI
62%
12
Conversely (see above), BAL will take PHI apart. I don't know why BAL isn't more highly owned, but that's good for streamers. 1st best stream this week.
MIA
@NYJ
55%
10
I missed two weeks ago, but got it right last week. This week the #1 target, expect big things. 2nd best stream.
ATL
SF
43%
9
ATL stuck it to LAR last week and this week they get yet another great target. 3rd best stream.
OAK
@SD
45%
9
I really like this one. OAK is avging 11 pts/game in last four starts. SD is a great target, so expect a nice return. 4th best start.
NO
@ARI
14%
8
ARI is still a great target with Palmer doing everything except move the ball. Even lowly NO will score against this off. 5th best start.
NYJ
MIA
25%
8
I hate to give the Jets any credit on DEF, but MIA will be without their QB and the Jets are best against the run. This is a good start this week.
BUF
CLE
62%
8
And how can we overlook the best target in the league. BUF may get a lift this week on a coaching change and renew their DEF. A good start this week.
NYG
DET
29%
8
This one is a bonus. At home the Giants are looking great on DEF, and the Lions have a hampered QB. Start if you don't have any other options.

Good luck on the playoffs.


Streaming Defenses - Week 14

Wednesday December 7th, 2016 03:09:52 AM
Holidays are in full swing at our house - we visited in family in Atlanta last week and saw the Christmas parade and went on a "sleigh ride" with the kids, and now it's time for Christmas tree trimming, present list making, and meltdowns from my little people. Sounds about right. Fortunately we have Bob's thoughts on streaming defenses below. And no promises, since clearly I can't seem to get my act together, but hopefully I'll be back with start/sit links later this week. 


Well, it had to happen sooner or later, I just wish it hadn’t been the week where leagues decide playoffs. The streamers did just terrible and I couldn’t even blame it on the weather. The biggest factor was that most of our favorite targets were playing highly owned teams and it showed. Another factor that I missed was the desire of teams fighting for playoff spots (TB, DET, BAL). We’ll remember that going forward.

And our prognostications were off, not just on the viable streamers, but also the outside streamers. In fact, the outside streamers (in red) did way better than the recommended ones. Sheesh. I remember having a discussion with a couple of readers that MIA was a better start than BAL. Boy, was I off on that one, and apologize. 

Week 13 Highly Owned
Team
Opp
% Owned
Proj Pts
Actual
SEA
CAR
98%
11
11
DEN
@JAC
97%
13
18
MIN
DAL
96%
2
12
NEP
LAR
96%
14
16
KC
@ATL
94%
6
10
ARI
WAS
92%
6
10
PHI
@CIN
81%
4
4
  Avg



11.57
Streams for Week 13
Team
Opp
% Owned
Proj Pts
Actual
MIA
@BAL
62%
10
4
WAS
@ARI
11%
10
3
SDC
TB
21%
10
5
NO
DET
22%
9
2
GB
HOU
28%
8
9
OAK
BUF
44%
6
11
DAL
@MIN
48%
2
9
NYG
@PIT
56%
4
9
  Avg



5.67


But I won’t be thwarted, since this is the only week of the entire season that was a train wreck for streamers. Hope you stocked up on some of the teams I suggested stashing for the playoffs because they’re going to show up on the weeks going forward. And this week, most of our targets are meeting some good streamers. We’ll see how that shakes out. Here’s how I see Week 14 with an emphasis on the playoff recommendations from last week.
Week 14 Highly Owned
Team
Opp
% Owned
Proj Pts
Comments
DEN
@TEN
99%
8
Titans have learned how to protect their QB, on the road DEN struggles, temper expectations.
SEA
@GB
98%
12/6
Weather dependent, if bad weather, high upside, if nice weather, temper expectations.
NEP
BAL
97%
13
2nd best start of the week for the highly owned.
MIN
@JAC
95%
14
Best highly owned matchup of the week, against a great target. #1 highly owned start.
KCC
OAK
93%
12/6
Watch for weather on this one, if bad, then I like the matchup. But if weather is fair, beware the stingy Raiders.
ARI
@MIA
91%
8
ARI Def has been so-so lately, and MIA is stingy, especially at home. If you start, temper your expectation
PHI
WAS
82%
4
Eagles just aren't the Def team they were midseason, look elsewhere.
Streams for Week 14
CIN
@CLE
33%
12
Bengals came awake last week and now they have the biggest target with potential rain and snow mix. #1 stream this week.
DET
CHI
9%
9
Bears are in shambles, and DET Def has come alive, looking toward the division. 2nd best stream of the week.
WAS
@PHI
12%
8
PHI has given up, but WAS has not, I love this stream this week. 3rd best stream. (recommended playoff pickup)
CAR
SDC
70%
8
CAR is surging and SD is now out of the playoffs. Watch for a surge on DEF especially if Kuechly is out of protocol.
MIA
ARI
63%
8
Cards had their way with a soft Def last week but MIA at home will present problems. 5th best stream (recommended playoff pickup)
TEN
DEN
11%
10/6
Depends on who the DEN QB is, good upside if Lynch, otherwise just a so-so start. (recommended playoff pickup)
ATL
@LAR
16%
6
Rams are a great target but I don't know about the Falcons defense. Many are touting this as a great start, but I would temper expectations.


Good luck on your first playoff game, and once again, sorry I missed on a very important week.



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